8---黄元 腰果市场分析CCCFNA.pdf

1、 腰果走势行情分析腰果走势行情分析Cashew market and trend 黄元 翱兰坚果原料与配料 腰果产情：Crop situation:全球腰果产量预计Vietnam:2025 crop Impacted By Unseasonal Rains During Harvest(10-15%Down).Crops Not Increasing,challenges from Climate Change越南25产季受雨季影响导致采收下滑10-15%个点，产量没有上涨，气候变化持续挑战产情Cambodia:Biggest Supplier of RCN to Vietnam,higher

2、 moisture this year,Long Term Crops will increase as more plantings come online and trees maturing柬埔寨：越南最大的壳果进口国，今年水分较高,长期看会持续增产，更多树被种植和成熟IVC crop size estimate is around 1.40 million MT.But recent RCN quality is poorer and price firm.科特迪瓦：预计今年有140万吨产量，但近期到货壳果的质量变差，同时价格稳定，有上涨趋势。2Cashew kernel export

3、 to China(Unit/FCL)中国的进口果仁（单位Unit/FCL）Month/YearMonth/Year月份月份/年份年份20202021202220232024 20242024 vs.vs.202320232025 20252025 vs.vs.20242024111529092104816682.10%164-80%2386683197107-45.70%257140%315024420834843725.40%59837%4170283401344842144.50%1,26250%5270309575580 1,027 76.90%1,48344%623943647359

4、272923.10%99837%720635240044056728.90%8276355480655519-20.80%9374461396761583-23.40%10482475520 1,045 753-27.90%114444996248419067.80%12431385410849620-27.00%Grand Total总计总计 3,196 4,155 4,662 6,758 7,906 17.00%476220.00%West&East Africa:Year-on-Year Cashew Crop Performance东西非东西非产区腰果产区腰果年度产情年度产情l Con

5、sistent Growth in West Africas Crop Yield(20192025)l 西非产区持续增长从2019到2025l Cte dIvoire Continues to Lead African RCN Productionl 科特迪瓦继续引领非洲头部产区l Weather and Policy Impact Reflected in Yearly Fluctuationsl 气候与政策影响每年的产情与行情l Our prediction for IVC is 1.40 million l 预计今年IVC有140万吨产量Vietnam kernel exporting

6、 to the world 越南出口腰果果仁到其他国家的发货量Source:Vietnam Customs国家国家2023(FCL)2024(FCL)2024 vs.23(FCL)2024 vs.23%2025 June YTD2025 June YTD Changes%美国US 9,439 12,270 2,830 30%4273-29%欧洲EU 8,499 9,0785797%4167-4%中国CN 6,458 7,374 91614%467924%中东&土耳其ME&TK5,330 5,987 65712%33