汇丰：全球宏观经济研究：人口老龄化困境-未来的承诺与财政难题-250813（中译版）（20页）.pdf

1、Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ Listen to our insightsFind out moreHSBCGlob

2、al InvestmentResearchPodcasts The rapid ageing of populations poses enormous fiscal risks Pension and health pledges are increasingly unaffordable making difficult decisions even more pressing Demographic change is one of the great challenges of our time.Birth rates are falling,populations are agein

3、g,and commitments to the population in terms of health,defence,and pension spending are racking up at a time when governments can ill afford it.In Europe,in 1950,just 8%of the population was over the age of 65.In the 1990s it was up to 14%.Today were at 20%,and before we get to 2050,were on track to

4、 be at 30%.In some economies,that trajectory is much worse.Based on the UNs low fertility assumptions,by 2086,South Korea is on track to have 65%of its population aged over 65,and mainland China wouldnt be far behind.Shockingly,with birth rates continuing to fall,those projections may even be too op

5、timistic.This poses many enormous macroeconomic challenges that current policy settings are ill-equipped to handle.They will weigh on growth and mean crippling fiscal strains unless something dramatically changes.In many places,its too late for demographic-led solutions.Lifting birth rates isnt easy

6、,and it would be twenty years before demographic pyramids started to turn.Increasing migration could work,but people need to be integrated,and migration rates would have to stay consistently high something that is unlikely to prove popular electorally.There is an alternative way to tackle the challe