1、KEY CONSIDERATIONSPOLICY&FINANCINGOUTLOOKTECHNOLOGIES&COSTSCarbon capture and storage:from turning point in 2025 to scale by mid-centuryENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK CCS TO 2050FOREWORDThe surge in installation reflects a widening appreciation of the decarbonization role of CCS.So far,the heavy lifting
2、on carbon capture development has been done within oil and gas production for natural gas processing and enhanced oil recovery.But after 2030,the market for CCS will increasingly address hard-to-decarbonize emission sources.With this shift,we forecast that North America will be joined by Europe as a
3、 leading region for CCS deployment.In the hierarchy of emissions reduction strategies,the first consideration should always be energy efficiency.Next is the use of renewables to replace fossil energy sources.Finally,there is CCS,which occupies an increasingly important niche:tackling emissions in ha
4、rd-to-decarbonize sectors.This includes CCS for process emissions in manufacturing,and in the production of low-carbon hydrogen from the steam reforming of natural gas.Our forecast is that CCS will grow significantly:from 41 Mt/yr today to 1.3 Gt of CO2 captured and stored Ditlev EngelCEO DNV Energy
5、 Systemsin the year 2050.That is a big uplift,but it falls short of where CCS should be in a net-zero outcome.Furthermore,we forecast that energy-related emissions roughly halve from today to 2050,and so,ironically,it is in todays high-emitting world where CCS is best applied.The biggest barrier to
6、the very much needed acceleration of CCS deployment is policy uncertainty.Policy shifts,not technology or costs,have been responsible for many CCS project failures.However,policy support for CCS is firming across most world regions.Indeed,carbon markets and voluntary offsets will evolve to the point
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