1、2025 OUTLOOK This is not a landing2Robeco|2025 OutlookContents1.Introduction 32.Three scenarios 63.Financial markets outlook 124.Signposts 2025 215.Sustainable investing:Eye on the longer-term prize 236.Embracing transition investing 27The 2025 Outlook has been compiled by Peter van der Welle(Multi-
2、Asset Strategist),Rachel Whittaker(Head of Sustainable Investment Research,Colin Graham(Head of Sustainable Multi-Asset Strategies)and Aliki Rouffiac(Portfolio Manager Multi-Asset Solutions).Marketing materials for professional investors only,not for onward distributionNovember 20243Robeco|2025 Outl
3、ookSurrealist painter Ren Magrittes iconic 1929 work The Treachery of Images portrays a wooden pipe with the subscript ceci nest pas une pipe or this is not a pipe.The artwork highlights the clear distinction between an object and its representation.The painting is a mere image of the pipe,not the a
4、ctual object itself.Through a parallel lens,we see numerous treacherous images in the current post-pandemic cycle.All the brushstrokes of a cyclical landing are present:an inverted yield curve(and its subsequent re-steepening in 2024),a triggered Sahm rule,1 and the persisting global manufacturing s
5、lump.However,at Robeco,we deem that this is not actually a landing.Instead of plunging into recession,the US economy seems to be moving from strength to strength in 2024,expanding at a vibrant 2.8%growth rate in Q3,whereas Germany and China struggle to even gain momentum.And instead of elevated layo
6、ffs(as typically seen at the onset of a recession),unusually high immigration levels have boosted labor supply and consequently distorted the 2024 unemployment numbers.Claudia Sahm reported herself that if her rule were to ever fail(the only precedent being in 1959),it would be now.Figure 1:This is
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