爱马仕投资管理公司：2025年全球投资展望报告（英文版）（16页）.pdf

1、The Federated Hermes 2025 OutlookFor professional investors onlyExecutive SummaryOver the past three years,liquidity markets have experienced significant growth,particularly in the US,where money market assets have surged by over US$2tn since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in March 2022.Thi

2、s increase was driven by rising yields,which reached their highest levels in decades.Despite widespread predictions that this trend will reverse in 2025 due to the Feds shift towards easing,we maintain a more optimistic outlook,with US$300bn flowing into money funds since the Feds half-point rate cu

3、t in September.The new Trump administration inherits a strong,albeit uneven,economy.While the Feds easing cycle has begun,the administrations policiessuch as tax cuts,increased spending,and tariffscould complicate the economic landscape and lead to a more bond-unfriendly environment.These policies m

4、ay also result in a steeper US yield curve and short-term inflationary pressures,causing the Fed to ease less than anticipated.For spread markets,positive growth policies could benefit corporate debt,but increased volatility may impact returns.Geopolitical shifts and aggressive tariff policies could

5、 disrupt markets,creating new opportunities in non-US developed and emerging markets.For US equities,the implementation of President Trumps pro-growth agenda,including lower corporate tax rates and reduced regulatory burdens,is anticipated to boost economic productivity and growth.With the broader U

6、S market expected to do well in 2025,our preference remains with large cap value and small cap stocks.Outside of the US,investors have been watching China closely and while performance in 2025 maycontinue to underwhelm,action from Beijing has been encouraging,with the government signalling that they