安联贸易：2024气候变化和老龄化的双重影响研究报告（英文版）（24页）.pdf

1、03Aging and health costs07Climate change has already taken its toll 10The direct effects of cli-mate change 13 June 2024Allianz ResearchClimate change and the double impact of aging11The indirect or potential long-term effects of climate change12The impact of climate change on health expenditures17G

2、oing green is the better air conditionerAllianzTrade2 Climate change will compound the rise in health expenditure already expected due to aging societies.With the total number of people aged 60 and older in the EU 27 member states and Norway and Switzerland set to increase to 152mn,from around 130mn

3、 today,health costs per capita are likely to rise by+8.5%until 2035.But this could be exacerbated by climate change,which affects older persons disproportionally.Climate change has already caused 157,000 premature deaths in the European countries we analyze between 2000 and 2023.The direct effects o

4、f climate change include increased injuries due to extreme weather events such as floods,storms and cyclones,forest fires or heat waves.The heatwave exposure of persons aged 65 has almost doubled in the decade to 2020,even before the recent spate of record-hot years.Furthermore,while warmer waters i

5、n the North of Europe foster the spread of bacteria,the South will be affected by an increase in vector-borne diseases transmitted by mosquitoes such as malaria,dengue fever or the West Nile virus,due to rising air temperatures.The rising prevalence of heatwaves alone could increase the health costs

6、 per capita between 2%(Ireland)and 5%(Greece)until 2035.On average,the cost would be around 4.9%higher than today.However,in combination with population aging,health costs are set to increase between+7%(Denmark)and+14%(Poland)(EU average:12%).But there are also less-visible indirect and long-term ef