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European Union:2024年老龄化报告-欧盟成员国经济和预算预测(2022-2070)(中译版)(358页).pdf

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1、Economic and Financial AffairsISSN 2443-8014(online)EUROPEAN ECONOMY2024 Ageing ReportEconomic&Budgetary Projections for the EU Member States(2022-2070)INSTITUTIONAL PAPER 279|APRIL 2024European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and economic developm

2、ents prepared by the European Commissions Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs,which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission,the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament.DISCLAIMER The views expressed in unofficial documents do not neces

3、sarily represent the views of the European Commission.LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the information contained in this publication.This paper exists in English only and can be do

4、wnloaded from https:/economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/ecfin-publications_en.Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union,2024 PDF ISBN 978-92-68-13780-2 ISSN 2443-8014 doi:10.2765/022983 KC-BC-24-006-EN-N European Union,2024 Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.The reuse polic

5、y of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU(OJ L 330,14.12.2011,p.39).For any use or reproduction of material that is not under the EU copyright,permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders.CREDIT Cover photography:Reporters.be/CHROMORANGE European Commis

6、sion Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 2024 Ageing Report Economic and budgetary projections for the EU Member States(2022-2070)EUROPEAN ECONOMY Institutional Paper 279 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii This report was prepared as part of the mandate the Economic and Financial Affairs Council

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本文是2024年欧盟老龄化报告,主要内容包括: 1. 人口老龄化趋势:欧盟人口预计将从2022年的4.49亿增长到2026年的4.53亿,之后下降至2070年的4.32亿。老年人口比例上升,2070年老年依赖比将达到59%。 2. 劳动力市场变化:劳动力参与率预计上升3个百分点,但不足以抵消劳动力人口下降。就业率上升,但总工作小时数下降9%。 3. 经济增长:GDP年均增长率1.3%,劳动力对GDP增长贡献转负,劳动生产率成为唯一增长来源。 4. 老龄化支出:报告预测了2022-2070年养老金、医疗、长期护理和教育支出,并计算了老龄化总成本。 5. 敏感性测试:对主要人口和经济参数进行敏感性测试,评估结果的稳健性。 6. 比较:与2021年报告相比,更新了人口和宏观经济假设,调整了部分国家养老金模型。
人口老龄化对欧盟经济有何影响? 欧盟如何应对人口老龄化带来的挑战? 欧盟各国如何调整公共养老金制度以适应人口老龄化?
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