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Vista:2026年展望:代理型AI与企业软件的未来研究报告(中译版)(16页).pdf

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1、VISTAS 2026 OUTLOOKAgentic AI and the Future of Enterprise SoftwareMONTI SAROYASenior Managing Director,Co-Head of Flagship FundASHLEY MACNEILLManaging Director,Co-Head of Capital Markets2VISTA EQUITY PARTNERSKEY TAKEAWAYSWe believe Agentic AI will transform enterprise software from tools that suppo

2、rt work into systems that perform work on behalf of employees.In our view,this represents a transformation in how software companies create and capture value.History shows that major technology transitions have consistently driven software expansion.We believe AI will follow the same pattern,and tha

3、t the amount of software consumed will grow significantly as agents work alongside employees.In our view,widespread enterprise adoption of Agentic AI is not a question of if,but when.Roughly 20 to 40 percent of workers are using AI in some capacity in the workplace,but only 1%of enterprise data is c

4、urrently incorporated into AI solutions,1 suggesting the large-scale integration of AI into core operations is still in its earliest stages.With an estimated$11 trillion in cumulative value projected to flow to AI software and infrastructure by 2030,2 we do not see this transition as a zero-sum game

5、 between model providers,hyperscalers and software.We expect durable value to accrue to software that can combine AI capabilities with workflow context and trusted execution.AI is expanding addressable markets for software and may raise the ceiling on revenue per customer,potentially improving unit

6、economics.This shift in the business model may unlock higher valuation multiples for companies that successfully make the transition,relative to traditional peers.Not every software company will make the transition.Some will evolve into Agentic AI platforms,while others will use AI primarily to driv

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1. **核心观点**:Agentic AI将把企业软件从“支持工作的工具”转变为“执行工作的系统”,重塑软件公司创造和捕获价值的方式,企业采用是“何时”而非“是否”的问题。 2. **市场潜力**:预计到2030年,AI软件和基础设施将累计创造11万亿美元价值,其中软件层(尤其是Agentic解决方案)预计达5-7万亿美元,增量价值约3万亿美元(源自全球可自动化劳动价值)。 3. **当前阶段**:仅1%的企业数据被整合到AI解决方案中,20-40%员工在工作中使用AI,大规模运营整合仍处早期。 4. **赢家特质**:成功需具备“上下文(行业理解)、信任(可审计与安全)、规模(大规模部署)”三大属性,非所有软件公司都能转型,通用流程、数据有限者面临风险。 5. **商业模式**:从“按员工收费”转向“按工作成果收费”,可能提升客户收入上限及估值倍数,推理成本未来有望下降。 6. **市场差异**:96%企业软件为私有,公共市场仅反映部分AI进展,私募市场对投资者至关重要。
**AI如何重塑软件?** **软件会被AI取代吗?** **AI如何创造新价值?**
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