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落基山研究所:2025巴西氨肥供应链脱碳:强化本土产业的即刻行动研究报告(英文版)(19页).pdf

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1、Decarbonizing the Ammonia Fertilizer Supply Chain in Brazil Insight Brief/November 2025Immediate actions to enable a robust domestic industry rmi.org/2Decarbonizing the Ammonia Fertilizer Supply Chain in Brazil Authors Pedro Guedes,Energy Transition Specialist,E+Thanh Ha,ManagerClauber Leite,Directo

2、r of Sustainable Energy and Bioeconomy,E+Patrick Molloy,Principal Elina Rodriguez,AssociateRachel Wilmoth,Senior Associate Authors listed alphabetically.All authors from RMI unless otherwise noted.ContactsPatrick Molloy,Principal,pmolloyrmi.orgThanh Ha,Manager,tharmi.orgCopyrights and Citation Patri

3、ck Molloy,Clauber Leite,Thanh Ha,Rachel Wilmoth,Elina Rodriguez,Pedro Guedes,Decarbonizing the Ammonia Fertilizer Supply Chain in Brazil Immediate Actions to Enable a Robust Domestic Industry,RMI,2025,https:/rmi.org/insight/decarbonizing-the-ammonia-fertilizer-supply-chain-in-brazil.RMI values colla

4、boration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge and insights.We therefore allow interested parties to reference,share,and cite our work through the Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.All images used are from iS unless

5、otherwise noted.Authors and Acknowledgmentsrmi.org/3Decarbonizing the Ammonia Fertilizer Supply Chain in Brazil About E+InstituteThe E+Institute is an independent Brazilian think tank that works to connect governments,industry,civil society and academia to promote the energy transition and the green

6、 transformation of industry as vectors for the countrys socio-economic development.E+promotes debate on these issues based on scientific evidence,through dialogue with various stakeholders,the development of studies and the dissemination of knowledge in the area of decarbonization,with an emphasis o

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1. **现状与挑战**:巴西97%氮肥依赖进口,2024年贸易逆差达43亿美元,国内天然气价格(19-22美元/MMBtu)远高于国际水平,暴露供应链脆弱性。 2. **低碳机遇**:巴西可再生能源丰富,绿氨在部分区域(如Pecém)已具备成本竞争力(800美元/吨),低于灰氨(650-800美元/吨);生物甲烷潜力大但利用率仅1.5%。 3. **国家目标**:PNF计划2030年国内氮肥产能达240万吨,其中20%通过绿氨或生物甲烷实现,2050年产能目标320万吨。 4. **行动建议**:需协调政策、降低资本成本、扩建能源基础设施、激活低碳肥料需求,以实现2030年绿肥与灰肥成本 parity。
巴西化肥何去何从? 绿色化肥成本几何? 如何摆脱进口依赖?
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