世界贸易组织（WTO）：2022年12月20国集团农业市场信息月度报告（中译版）（18页）.pdf

1、MarketMonitorNo.104 December 2022ContentsFeature article:Is Speculation Driving CommodityPrice Volatility?2World supply-demand outlook3Crop monitor5Policy developments8International prices11Futures markets13Market indicators14Fertilizer outlook16Ocean freight markets17Explanatory notes18WHEATMAIZERI

2、CESOYBEANSMarkets at a glanceEasingNeutralTighteningFROMPREVIOUSFORECASTSFROMPREVIOUSSEASONWith northern hemisphere grain and oilseedcrops largely harvested,and the Black SeaGrain Initiative extended for another 120days,market attention is shifting to grow-ing conditions in the southern hemisphere.T

3、he third consecutive year of La Nia hasprolonged drought conditions in Argentina,resulting in sharply reduced wheat produc-tion prospects relative to last year.By con-trast,La Nia has resulted in abnormally wetconditionsinAustralia,whichexpectsabove-average wheat yields;however,concerns re-main over

4、 the quality of the crop,whichcould impact prices for milling wheat.Plant-ing progress for South American maize andsoybeans are on pace,but it is still too earlyto tell whether yields will return to more nor-mal levels after last years drought-reducedproduction.The Market Monitor is a product of the

5、 Agricultural Market Information System(AMIS).It covers international markets for wheat,maize,riceand soybeans,giving a synopsis of major market developments and the policy and other market drivers behind them.The analysis is a collectiveassessment of the market situation and outlook by the ten inte

6、rnational organizations and entities that form the AMIS Secretariat.2AMIS Market MonitorNo.104 December 2022Feature articleIs Speculation Driving Commodity Price Volatility?The debate whether speculation is driving food pricevolatility has come back to the forefront.Especially forlow-income countrie